Category: September 26 (Page 3 of 4)

Confirmation Bias

Just in terms of probability, the chance that our species should arise and become self-aware on a planet like this (one with water and a hospitable climate) is infinitesimal. One could conjure up some rough probabilities for various events required for our civilisation to come about (our universe beginning its existence, the Milky Way forming, Earth forming at a habitable distance from the sun, water forming on the surface of our Earth, etc.) and multiply them together to form some minuscule compounded probability for our existence. Of course, this would be a wildly incorrect estimation as many of these events are consequences of their precedents. Anyhow, the overall odds that we should even be here are not in our favor.

Understandably, due to our seemingly lucky existence, our species is infatuated with broadening and solidifying our understanding of why we might have suddenly (on a cosmic timescale) popped into existence. We dig deep holes in our soil, rock, and ice to gather knowledge of conditions which may have given way for proto-life to form. Unlike astronomy, however, we cannot simply look deeper and deeper to reveal the secrets of the past. Much of the past, in its physical form, did not wait around for us to study it and is now lost to decomposition and tectonic changes. Our dream is to find a life-form with origins similar enough to ours (and preferably primitive enough) that we can deduce something about our own origins.

The narrative would go something like the following: we explore venues hospitable to life (as we know it), find something similar to our own concept of life and classify it as less developed than ourselves, and use what we can deduce about its evolutionary lineage to justify our own. We search for other life forms under hefty influence of our confirmation bias. We search under the notion that whatever we find must be inferior.

Explore, discover, classify, degrade, call it a day. This rings a bell. To me, it sounds fairly similar to the pseudoscientific beliefs about race applied by white folk to the people of countries they were colonizing.

Side note: You could of course ask, “What if we found something ‘more advanced’ than ourselves?”. I, in this case, believe that it would have found us first and perhaps applied the same logic to us (if it is subject to some of the same un-humanistic principles we’ve developed here, at home).

Apropos confirmation bias, why do we make the assumption that alternate life forms must be water based? Given the already tiny probability that we would exist in the first place, what is the probability that any other life we find should follow the same chance-ridden path? Are we doing ourselves a massive disservice by guarding this idea as the key to life?
I stumbled on a laughable (computer programming related) tweet a while back which read, “Whenever you write code that feels hacky, just remember that a computer is just a rock we tricked into thinking”. Pardon my humor, but, who is to say there aren’t sentient rock people on planets which we haven’t bothered placing at because they weren’t wet on the surface?

Origin and Evolution of the Earth

On September 26, 2017 our class discussed the origin and evolution of the earth. The earth is very special because we have water, a habitable climate and complex life. Why does the earth have all these features? Why is there no life like ours found in our solar system? One might find microbial life; however, there is no complex life. According to the big bang theory, 14 billion year ago the universe expanded exploding rapidly at first and then slowed down. After 4 million years stars start to form; however, most of the universe is dark energy. Most of the energy is not atomic matter. 4% of the universe is made up of atoms. How did things like hydrogen and oxygen come to be? Clouds collapsing form these elements. Inside the stars things like hydrogen and helium are made. The sun was a cloud that stopped collapsing. In 10 billion years sun will burn out. If a star doesn’t burn for a long time there is no complex life. Red super giant stars are so big that when they collapse they make elements all at once because they are so hot. However, the stars stop at iron, because the other elements are to heavy. The heavier elements are made in process called neutron capture. When the super red giant collapses clouds of dust filled with elements. Everything in you was made inside of a star. We are all just made out of stardust. How do planets form from these big giant stars? How do you make a planet out of dust? The small particles stick to each other. Gravity isn’t strong enough at first to bring these particles together. Overtime the particles start to stick together. When there isn’t enough stickiness the particles bounce off of each other. How was planet earth formed? The earth is 4.6 billion years old. How was the moon formed? Why do we have the moon? Apparently a mars size planet whacked the earth. This collision caused material to splatter off. Mantle material creates the moon.Where did water on earth come from? The most likely theory is that the ocean came e out of the earth. Perhaps it was frozen? Or perhaps the earth sweats out the water. Although it seems like the earth has a ton of water, the water content of the earth is a tiny .02% of its mass. In bulk the earth is very dry. What about the earth’s atmosphere? How could it be that the atmosphere is at just the right temperature that water can condense out? What about plate tectonics? Why are there only plates on earth? We don’t know when plate tectonics started. It is magnificent miracle that the earth exists, that it has such complex life and it has all of these things that maintains complex life such as water and an atmosphere. One can try their best to discover how these things came about; however, the truth is that no one will ever know how all these things came about. It is magical, that’s for sure.

 

 

Finding Order in Chaos: A Bleak Speculation on the Human Time-line

Last week I wrote about the ties between religion and astrology, suggesting that perhaps we are asking too many questions pertaining to the ‘how’, and less of the ‘why’. I concluded with a loose suggestion that perhaps astrology and our pursuit of a proof-based origin story mirrors religious endeavors to instill comfort and confidence with a sense of understanding. After this week, I stand by that theory. However, I am left with a sublime sense of our aimless and haphazard existence. On the grand scheme of the cosmos, a human life span is a speck within a spec on a grain of the sands of time. Excuse my melodramatic angst, but we are nothing (relatively). But that’s not what I write about today.

Today, I write about the concept that systems, when starved/burned/ or otherwise introduced to chaos, find order. They adapt. Of course I find comfort in this, especially when I noticed this phenomenon on every scale. In the macro theatre, post gravitational collapse, space dust hurries to accumulate mass (and thus gravitational force) to overcome the pull of the collapsing star. The dust, and soon planets, are introduced to the star’s rotational axis and follow suit. On a micro scale, post big bang, the hydrogen molecules among the gaseous soup cool enough to form bonds, and soon life. Even on a human scale, after 59 individuals were shot dead at a Las Vegas music festival, hospitals fill with volunteers waiting to give blood. We organized among the chaos. The 18th century Industrial Revolution led to the organization of labor unions, the American Civil War drafted the Lieber Code, and World War II gave birth to the United Nations. While these examples are quite generalized, they serve to highlight systems bathed in chaos finding order.

Bringing it back to our lecture…

When media discusses global warming, they treat it as though the world were coming to an end (of course depending on what news program you watch), and, for many, the end of the human race is the end of the world. But, as I mentioned earlier, the end of the human race, by means of environmental shifts beyond the sufficient condition of the human species, is indeed not the end of the world. In fact, for the earth, humans are a relatively only a short blip in time. The earth has fostered the growth and reproduction of humans, and, as we upset the stability of our atmosphere by artificially releasing stored carbon, it must correct. To return to a stable state, as we discussed, the environment will make the necessary alterations to counteract the abundance of carbon-dioxide. Now this is not to say that we as humans will not find order within our new-found chaos, but will it be enough?

Will I be dead? Most definitely. Will I have left an impact or made a difference? We hope, and most likely on a local, relative scale. Will my carbon footprint have mattered? Now I dabble into question of morality. The earth will correct, that much we know. Will it do so fast enough to spare the human population? No, not unless we change our trajectory and artificially apply the carbon-hand brake. So it really boils down to one question, how does my environmental ignorance deviate from the trajectory of mankind? Is Asiimov accurate in his predictions of an everlasting, entropy-reversing walk of life, or are we destined to remain a spec within a spec on a grain of the sands of time.

The origins of the unique earth

David Bercovici’s lecture on the origins of the Earth was pretty science orientated to me. Before his lecture and seminar, we read few chapters of his book the Origins of Everything in 100 Pages (More or Less), in which Bercovici introduced the formation of the solar system, the planet Earth, the ocean, and the climate. I learned from his book and lecture about the chemical and geological processes that all these basic building blocks went through to form the environment we live in today. But jumping out of the pure science cycle, it is also interesting to think about the social and historian implications of these scientific findings.

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